Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251010 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 60.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 40.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.5 21.7 20.5 23.1 25.0 24.2 24.6 23.8 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 16.0 13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 8.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 128.6 128.6 124.4 122.4 122.4 122.4 116.6 120.5 F F N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -18.0 -25.0 -26.0 -22.0 -15.0 -12.0 -28.0 -4.0 U VU VU VU U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 24.0 24.0 26.0 26.0 28.0 25.0 24.0 22.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.1% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 4.6% 1.0% 2.8% 70kt / 48h 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 3.6% 1.7% 2.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.60 IO022025 251010 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 60.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 40.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.5 21.7 20.5 23.1 25.0 24.2 24.6 23.8 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 24.0 24.0 26.0 26.0 28.0 25.0 24.0 22.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%