Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251010 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 59.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 34.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.0 20.4 22.9 26.4 26.7 26.9 23.3 23.7 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 17.0 16.0 16.0 7.0 8.0 6.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.5 120.5 120.5 120.5 122.4 116.6 120.5 124.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -31.0 -27.0 -6.0 -4.0 -29.0 -7.0 -33.0 0.0 VU VU U U VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 26.0 26.0 25.0 27.0 26.0 25.0 23.0 24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.5% 1.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 3.9% 0.8% 2.3% 70kt / 48h 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 2.9% 1.3% 2.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 IO022025 251010 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 59.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.