Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022025 251011 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     59.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  23.6  27.0  27.6  26.4  25.6  24.8  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  14.0  13.0   7.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.5 120.5 120.5 120.5 118.5 128.6 135.1 145.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0   6.0   9.0 -11.0 -14.0 -22.0 -32.0   0.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   25.0  24.0  26.0  27.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        0.8%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.5%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        2.0%        2.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 IO022025 251011 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     59.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.