Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032025 251027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     85.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.1  44.8  43.2  38.7  37.4  33.7  22.8  12.2 VU VU VU  U  U  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  50.0  48.0  46.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  60.0  30.0  28.0  -3.0  16.0  37.0  31.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  73.0  75.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -6.0  -4.0   1.0   4.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.7%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        5.4%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        3.3%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        4.0%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 IO032025 251027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     85.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.1  44.8  43.2  38.7  37.4  33.7  22.8  12.2 VF VF VF  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  73.0  75.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -6.0  -4.0   1.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%