Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032025 251027 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.7  40.8  40.6  41.7  41.5  32.5  26.4  20.2 VU VU  U VU VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  48.0  50.0  32.0  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  70.0  74.0  86.0  10.0   2.0  17.0  21.0  N  N  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  71.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0   0.0   4.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        5.0%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.7%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 IO032025 251027 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.7  40.8  40.6  41.7  41.5  32.5  26.4  20.2 VF VF  F VF VF  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  71.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0   0.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%