Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032025 251027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     84.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.4  42.4  44.1  39.1  33.4  25.9  14.9  19.5 VU VU VU  U  U  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  61.0  58.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  28.0  32.0  -2.0  16.0  37.0  30.0  24.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  76.0  79.0  75.0  71.0  74.0  71.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0   1.0   4.0   7.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        0.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        4.4%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.2%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        4.1%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 IO032025 251027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     84.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.4  42.4  44.1  39.1  33.4  25.9  14.9  19.5 VF VF VF  F  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  76.0  79.0  75.0  71.0  74.0  71.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0   1.0   4.0   7.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%