Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032025 251029 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90     81.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  25.5  24.0  18.9  26.6  43.1  43.6  48.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  47.9  43.8  39.7  31.5  23.4  15.2   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  92.7  80.0  77.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   8.0  24.0  16.0  42.0   9.0  23.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  69.0  73.0  71.0  67.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 IO032025 251029 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90     81.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  25.5  24.0  18.9  26.6  43.1  43.6  48.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  69.0  73.0  71.0  67.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%