Rapid Intensification Guidance IO032025 251030 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.00 79.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.4 34.0 35.8 39.5 39.6 59.6 68.5 70.8 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 132.9 120.5 107.7 107.7 96.5 88.0 86.7 78.2 F N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 20.0 15.0 8.0 6.0 -3.0 -15.0 -18.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 75.0 72.0 71.0 62.0 52.0 40.0 26.0 F F N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 6.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 N N U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.26 IO032025 251030 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.00 79.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.