Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042025 251125 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      4.70     98.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  31.3  31.5  35.4  41.7  40.3  33.0  34.9  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  90.0  93.0  94.0  93.0  92.0  89.0  68.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 111.0  95.0  92.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  43.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  68.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.7%       11.8%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       45.1%       51.9%       48.5%
 30kt / 24h       26.7%       33.0%       29.8%
 35kt / 24h       19.1%       33.0%       26.0%
 40kt / 24h       19.1%       31.5%       25.3%
 45kt / 36h       27.8%       41.4%       34.6%
 55kt / 36h       14.0%       18.4%       16.2%
 55kt / 48h       24.2%       14.6%       19.4%
 70kt / 48h        9.3%        9.4%        9.3%
 65kt / 72h       21.3%       19.1%       20.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 IO042025 251125 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      4.70     98.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  31.3  31.5  35.4  41.7  40.3  33.0  34.9  N  N  N  F VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  68.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%