Rapid Intensification Guidance IO042025 251126 00UTC Storm Located at : 4.50 97.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 77.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 71.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.4 42.0 39.7 38.3 38.0 28.2 38.6 31.2 U VU U U U N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 85.0 90.0 89.0 89.0 81.0 66.0 65.0 72.0 N F F F N N N N Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 88.0 91.0 105.0 99.0 89.0 67.0 41.0 N F F F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 80.0 81.0 74.0 68.0 61.0 61.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.7% 2.9% 3.3% 25kt / 24h 15.1% 21.2% 18.1% 30kt / 24h 6.4% 9.0% 7.7% 35kt / 24h 2.6% 9.0% 5.8% 40kt / 24h 2.6% 6.7% 4.6% 45kt / 36h 8.0% 14.9% 11.4% 55kt / 36h 2.3% 4.0% 3.1% 55kt / 48h 12.0% 7.7% 9.8% 70kt / 48h 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 65kt / 72h 17.0% 9.5% 13.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.90 IO042025 251126 00UTC Storm Located at : 4.50 97.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.4 42.0 39.7 38.3 38.0 28.2 38.6 31.2 F VF F F F N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 80.0 81.0 74.0 68.0 61.0 61.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%