Rapid Intensification Guidance IO042025 251126 06UTC Storm Located at : 3.90 98.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.1 43.0 40.7 37.9 36.6 31.9 37.6 32.9 VU VU VU U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 79.0 79.0 79.0 66.0 66.0 76.0 79.0 81.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 88.0 90.0 105.0 95.0 119.0 108.0 56.0 43.0 F F F F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 81.0 82.0 79.0 78.0 70.0 68.0 61.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.5% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 1.6% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 2.2% 1.5% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 17.0% 3.2% 10.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.10 IO042025 251126 06UTC Storm Located at : 3.90 98.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.1 43.0 40.7 37.9 36.6 31.9 37.6 32.9 VF VF VF F F N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 81.0 82.0 79.0 78.0 70.0 68.0 61.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%