Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042025 241214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.20     42.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  16.9  17.4  22.6  14.4  26.6  14.3  25.7  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.3  47.0  42.3  37.9  27.4  18.0  12.7   7.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  67.0  60.0  65.0  30.0  17.0  39.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  19.0   8.0   2.0   5.0  -6.0   5.0  -4.0  U VU  U  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%        3.6%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%        5.7%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        3.5%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.2%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.24

 SH042025 241214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.20     42.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  16.9  17.4  22.6  14.4  26.6  14.3  25.7  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  19.0   8.0   2.0   5.0  -6.0   5.0  -4.0  F VF  F  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.3%        3.6%