Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250610 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  25.0  30.5  31.1  27.1  27.5  30.3  23.5  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  61.0  60.0  53.0  40.0  30.0  22.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  63.0  81.0  92.0 116.0  93.0  66.0  14.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  84.0  80.0  82.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       13.9%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        4.3%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.7%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.4%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       20.2%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        6.2%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h       12.1%        9.5%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        6.7%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h        8.5%       19.9%       14.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP012025 250610 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  25.0  30.5  31.1  27.1  27.5  30.3  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  84.0  80.0  82.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%