Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250610 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  27.8  28.5  28.4  32.0  32.7  32.7  32.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  50.0  38.0  32.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  62.0  71.0 101.0 113.0  55.0  18.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  82.0  84.0  82.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        2.7%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       22.0%       15.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%        7.7%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        7.4%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        7.4%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h       10.3%       27.3%       18.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%        9.3%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h       14.3%       10.1%       12.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        7.2%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%       13.9%        9.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP012025 250610 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  27.8  28.5  28.4  32.0  32.7  32.7  32.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  82.0  84.0  82.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%