Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250611 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  26.8  25.7  22.5  26.1  26.2  27.6  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  41.0  33.0  28.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  59.0 103.0 101.0  66.0  48.0 -16.0  -4.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  82.0  84.0  81.0  83.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%       14.1%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.4%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        4.1%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.1%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.6%       16.4%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        4.6%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h       10.1%        8.4%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        4.8%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%       12.8%        8.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP012025 250611 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  26.8  25.7  22.5  26.1  26.2  27.6  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  82.0  84.0  81.0  83.0  78.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%