Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250611 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  23.3  18.3  23.0  20.3  24.3  22.0  28.7  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  33.0  28.0  28.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0 103.0 101.0  99.0  47.0  10.0 -16.0  10.0  N  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  82.0  84.0  84.0  82.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       14.2%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.8%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.2%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.2%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%       16.6%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        4.8%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.0%        9.4%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        4.7%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%       12.3%        8.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP012025 250611 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  23.3  18.3  23.0  20.3  24.3  22.0  28.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  82.0  84.0  84.0  82.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%