Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250611 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  20.8  25.0  24.8  25.1  26.0  26.4  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  48.0  45.0  38.0  31.0  27.0  27.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0  94.0  99.0  56.0  48.0 -16.0  -4.0  -1.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  83.0  81.0  81.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   7.0  12.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%       14.3%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.9%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.3%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.2%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       15.4%        9.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        4.5%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        7.7%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        3.8%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        9.7%        5.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 WP012025 250611 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  20.8  25.0  24.8  25.1  26.0  26.4  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  83.0  81.0  81.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   7.0  12.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%