Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250611 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    110.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  28.0  31.4  23.0  23.9  24.5  27.8  20.2  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  44.0  39.0  33.0  28.0  28.0  26.0  26.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  91.0  66.0  52.0  14.0   1.0  -6.0  17.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  83.0  84.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -8.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.0%        4.9%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h       18.6%       34.4%       26.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       18.3%       13.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       18.3%       11.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       17.0%       10.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.3%       34.4%       22.9%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       15.1%       10.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%       13.5%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        8.0%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%       14.4%        7.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP012025 250611 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    110.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  28.0  31.4  23.0  23.9  24.5  27.8  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  83.0  84.0  80.0  80.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -8.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%