Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250612 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  26.4  20.8  20.5  27.3  24.5  21.7  14.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  33.0  33.0  30.0  26.0  26.0  25.0  24.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  81.0  64.0  68.0  24.0 -20.0   2.0  31.0  F  N  N  N  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  82.0  81.0  77.0  76.0  70.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0   3.0   8.0   9.0   1.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        2.6%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.4%       25.9%       18.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%       12.0%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       12.0%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       11.9%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       21.9%       14.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%        7.8%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%       10.7%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        5.0%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%       12.5%        7.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP012025 250612 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  26.4  20.8  20.5  27.3  24.5  21.7  14.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  82.0  81.0  77.0  76.0  70.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0   3.0   8.0   9.0   1.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%