Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250612 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  18.9  22.2  23.9  22.9  30.4  21.6  26.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  33.0  33.0  31.0  29.0  27.0  22.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0  90.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  67.0  62.0  48.0  -6.0 -24.0  26.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   4.0   2.0   9.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%        9.4%       10.6%
 25kt / 24h       26.5%       44.5%       35.5%
 30kt / 24h       16.7%       31.8%       24.2%
 35kt / 24h       14.1%       31.8%       22.9%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       31.7%       19.4%
 45kt / 36h       14.8%       34.1%       24.5%
 55kt / 36h        6.7%       16.0%       11.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%       14.2%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        6.3%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        8.2%        4.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP012025 250612 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  18.9  22.2  23.9  22.9  30.4  21.6  26.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   4.0   2.0   9.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%