Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250612 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  20.6  20.8  19.4  20.3  18.0  16.2  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  30.0  29.0  28.0  29.0  26.0  19.7  13.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  92.4  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  83.0  84.0  65.0  47.0  33.0  22.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  78.0  75.0  76.0  71.0  73.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   7.0  12.0   0.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        8.6%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h       25.1%       46.2%       35.7%
 30kt / 24h       14.5%       35.2%       24.8%
 35kt / 24h       11.0%       35.2%       23.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%       34.5%       19.9%
 45kt / 36h       17.7%       37.4%       27.6%
 55kt / 36h        7.2%       18.4%       12.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%       25.4%       17.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%       10.4%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%       12.8%        7.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP012025 250612 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  20.6  20.8  19.4  20.3  18.0  16.2  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  78.0  75.0  76.0  71.0  73.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   7.0  12.0   0.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%