Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012025 250613 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 72.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 25.1 20.6 24.4 20.6 23.1 33.8 41.8 N N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 26.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 13.0 7.8 2.6 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 82.4 67.7 45.4 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 12.0 -12.0 -46.0 7.0 57.0 75.0 64.0 U U U VU U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 74.0 75.0 69.0 74.0 69.0 58.0 F F N F N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 12.0 1.0 11.0 1.0 F N N N U N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.8% 19.4% 19.1% 25kt / 24h 32.0% 53.6% 42.8% 30kt / 24h 30.7% 51.2% 41.0% 35kt / 24h 30.7% 51.2% 41.0% 40kt / 24h 7.4% 47.8% 27.6% 45kt / 36h 15.3% 38.6% 27.0% 55kt / 36h 7.3% 21.8% 14.5% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 17.9% 9.5% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 7.1% 3.6% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 2.5% 1.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.14 WP012025 250613 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 25.1 20.6 24.4 20.6 23.1 33.8 41.8 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 74.0 75.0 69.0 74.0 69.0 58.0 U U N U N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 12.0 1.0 11.0 1.0 U N N N F N F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%