Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250613 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    108.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  24.2  23.2  20.0  20.8  31.0  36.5  60.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  29.0  28.0  24.0  12.0   0.7   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  80.5  56.5  40.5  17.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  -9.0   0.0   2.0  27.0  61.0  58.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  79.0  75.0  77.0  62.0  53.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  -2.0   2.0  11.0   6.0   8.0  20.0 -18.0  U  N  N  U  N  U VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        4.5%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       19.0%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.5%       12.7%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        7.5%       12.7%       10.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       12.6%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%        7.8%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        2.5%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 WP012025 250613 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    108.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  24.2  23.2  20.0  20.8  31.0  36.5  60.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  79.0  75.0  77.0  62.0  53.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  -2.0   2.0  11.0   6.0   8.0  20.0 -18.0  F  N  N  F  N  F VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%