Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012025 250613 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 108.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.4 21.0 18.3 18.4 23.4 35.8 58.9 54.6 F N F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 24.0 23.0 18.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 109.3 85.5 72.7 50.4 36.7 31.8 N N N N U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 24.0 -2.0 34.0 63.0 53.0 43.0 19.0 U U U N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 75.0 74.0 78.0 70.0 56.0 46.0 46.0 F F N F N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 5.0 15.0 11.0 0.0 29.0 -5.0 -14.0 N N U U N VU F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 3.3% 2.6% 25kt / 24h 4.1% 14.1% 9.1% 30kt / 24h 2.6% 8.6% 5.6% 35kt / 24h 2.4% 8.1% 5.2% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 7.7% 4.1% 45kt / 36h 2.0% 5.3% 3.6% 55kt / 36h 0.8% 1.6% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.46 WP012025 250613 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 108.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.4 21.0 18.3 18.4 23.4 35.8 58.9 54.6 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 75.0 74.0 78.0 70.0 56.0 46.0 46.0 U U N U N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 5.0 15.0 11.0 0.0 29.0 -5.0 -14.0 N N F F N VF U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%