Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012025 250614 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 109.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 17.4 18.4 21.0 31.7 48.0 66.7 72.2 N F F N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 26.0 19.0 15.2 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 77.4 53.0 36.7 13.4 11.2 N N N U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 27.0 29.0 25.0 81.0 37.0 6.0 27.0 U U N U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 68.0 72.0 71.0 56.0 52.0 41.0 41.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 8.0 14.0 7.0 12.0 0.0 5.0 -2.0 N U U N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 21.8% 16.8% 19.3% 25kt / 24h 23.7% 37.4% 30.5% 30kt / 24h 22.6% 34.5% 28.5% 35kt / 24h 22.6% 34.5% 28.5% 40kt / 24h 10.2% 34.5% 22.3% 45kt / 36h 7.6% 11.5% 9.5% 55kt / 36h 3.9% 4.3% 4.1% 55kt / 48h 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.42 WP012025 250614 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 109.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 17.4 18.4 21.0 31.7 48.0 66.7 72.2 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 68.0 72.0 71.0 56.0 52.0 41.0 41.0 N N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 8.0 14.0 7.0 12.0 0.0 5.0 -2.0 N F F N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%