Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250614 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  18.4  21.9  25.2  40.7  55.4  61.2  79.0  N  F  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  19.0   1.0   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0  87.4  74.4  74.4  46.7  27.4  19.7  11.2  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  30.0  25.0  61.0  74.0  47.0  26.0  12.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  72.0  71.0  64.0  56.0  45.0  39.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  15.0   8.0   8.0  26.0  24.0  -5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        4.4%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        9.4%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        5.4%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        4.9%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 WP012025 250614 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  18.4  21.9  25.2  40.7  55.4  61.2  79.0  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  72.0  71.0  64.0  56.0  45.0  39.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  15.0   8.0   8.0  26.0  24.0  -5.0   0.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%