Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012025 250614 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 110.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.8 19.2 22.8 27.9 44.2 65.8 73.7 73.7 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.4 79.4 68.0 68.0 44.8 24.1 28.4 28.4 N N U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 30.0 62.0 50.0 25.0 -4.0 35.0 35.0 N N N N U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 65.0 58.0 50.0 43.0 37.0 42.0 42.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 12.0 1.0 25.0 17.0 21.0 -7.0 -7.0 U U N VU U VU F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 WP012025 250614 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 110.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.