Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012025 250614 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  26.2  42.0  42.4  65.0  65.7  65.7  65.7  N  N VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  83.0  71.7  66.7  39.1  30.1  30.1  30.1  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  57.0  52.0  39.0  17.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  62.0  52.0  47.0  46.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  U VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  12.0  27.0  36.0 -10.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  U  U VU VU  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.02

 WP012025 250614 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.