Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022025 250622 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  16.8  17.8  13.5  14.6  15.7  14.1  12.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  29.0  21.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 134.3 120.7 104.8  79.4  65.9  64.8  62.7  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  37.0  11.0 -22.0  -6.0  19.0   7.0  -5.0  U  N  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        3.5%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       17.1%       10.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        7.2%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        6.5%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        6.5%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       19.7%       10.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        8.7%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h       13.4%        5.6%        9.5%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        4.3%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.7%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 WP022025 250622 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  16.8  17.8  13.5  14.6  15.7  14.1  12.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%