Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022025 250622 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    145.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  19.2  18.3  15.5  10.6  16.2  11.2  12.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  24.0  15.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 120.7 108.5  91.1  69.3  65.9  64.8  59.7  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  26.0 -22.0  43.0 -12.0  49.0  52.0  53.0  N  U VU  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  67.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   5.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.9%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        7.3%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h       11.1%        4.4%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        1.4%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 WP022025 250622 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    145.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  19.2  18.3  15.5  10.6  16.2  11.2  12.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  67.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   5.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%