Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022025 250623 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    144.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  18.7  16.4  19.5  22.0  16.6  12.2  15.8  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7  91.0  75.8  66.7  59.8  57.7  54.7  49.1  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  -7.0   7.0  16.0  -2.0  11.0  30.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  65.0  70.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -10.0   2.0   0.0  10.0   4.0   6.0  18.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.6%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%        0.2%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.60

 WP022025 250623 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    144.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.