Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022025 250623 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    143.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  14.8  18.7  18.4  19.9  11.6  16.0  19.3  F  F  N  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.0  75.8  66.7  62.0  59.8  57.7  54.7  42.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -14.0   9.0  12.0  21.0  56.0  33.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  68.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   5.0   0.0   1.0   7.0   5.0   9.0  28.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h       10.4%        0.2%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.80

 WP022025 250623 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    143.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.