Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022025 250623 12UTC Storm Located at : 27.00 143.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.70 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.7 19.1 18.1 21.7 15.6 13.3 13.3 26.5 F N F N F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 70.8 61.7 61.7 57.0 55.9 53.8 44.1 30.8 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 24.0 -1.0 10.0 27.0 -12.0 27.0 36.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 58.0 61.0 61.0 63.0 64.0 66.0 67.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 3.0 5.0 10.0 13.0 N N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.1% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.20 WP022025 250623 12UTC Storm Located at : 27.00 143.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.