Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022025 250623 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 141.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.8 15.3 16.7 15.7 12.7 13.8 19.1 26.9 N F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.7 62.0 62.0 60.9 58.8 54.7 49.1 28.7 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 19.0 11.0 42.0 50.0 70.0 36.0 26.0 U U U N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 61.0 63.0 64.0 67.0 67.0 64.0 65.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 1.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 25.0 29.0 F N N N N N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.68 WP022025 250623 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 141.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.