Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022025 250624 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.30 141.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.3 18.0 15.7 14.4 12.8 13.5 24.5 33.7 F F F F F F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 67.9 63.2 62.0 62.0 59.8 51.8 35.2 17.1 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 11.0 42.0 36.0 17.0 46.0 24.0 65.0 U U N N U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 63.0 64.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 64.0 68.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 13.0 19.0 25.0 N N N N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.62 WP022025 250624 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.30 141.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.