Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022025 250624 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.30 139.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.7 15.6 18.6 23.5 24.1 29.9 44.0 42.2 N F N N N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 64.8 64.8 60.7 55.0 33.2 17.2 11.5 10.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 66.0 37.0 50.0 79.0 39.0 56.0 70.0 26.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 64.0 65.0 67.0 67.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 8.0 11.0 14.0 28.0 14.0 40.0 40.0 N U U U VU U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.96 WP022025 250624 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.30 139.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.