Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032025 250625 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  26.4  33.2  32.6  27.2  27.3  27.2  27.2  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  32.0  26.0  28.0  32.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 127.9 102.7 102.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  33.0  47.0  51.0  22.0  28.0  25.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   8.0  22.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.9%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       20.3%       12.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        8.7%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        8.4%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        6.5%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       29.4%       15.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%       13.0%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        9.1%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        6.9%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        8.1%        4.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 WP032025 250625 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  26.4  33.2  32.6  27.2  27.3  27.2  27.2  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   8.0  22.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%