Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032025 250625 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  34.3  32.8  26.8  28.0  27.2  29.5  29.5  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  26.0  26.0  33.0  23.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 113.5  94.6  94.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  26.0  57.0  56.0  33.0  34.0 -11.0 -11.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  16.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        9.5%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%       12.4%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.7%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        3.3%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP032025 250625 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  34.3  32.8  26.8  28.0  27.2  29.5  29.5  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  16.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%