Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032025 250625 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  29.5  25.2  31.1  28.3  34.1  35.8  35.8  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  26.0  33.0  35.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 113.5  84.4  64.7  64.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  44.0  48.0  47.0  30.0  14.0  18.0  18.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   8.0   4.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.0%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.8%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 WP032025 250625 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  29.5  25.2  31.1  28.3  34.1  35.8  35.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   8.0   4.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%