Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032025 250626 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  23.4  29.2  28.8  22.4  30.2  36.2  37.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  33.0  32.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 127.9 102.7  85.8  70.9  60.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  53.0  24.0   4.0  38.0  15.0  19.0   6.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  15.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        9.8%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.5%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       11.2%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        3.5%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        0.3%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 WP032025 250626 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  23.4  29.2  28.8  22.4  30.2  36.2  37.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  15.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%