Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032025 250626 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  30.6  28.5  22.6  33.1  28.7  28.7  28.7  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  32.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 127.9 113.5  85.8  65.7  65.7  65.7  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  43.0  15.0  39.0  48.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  73.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   4.0   4.0  -3.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.0%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.7%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 WP032025 250626 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  30.6  28.5  22.6  33.1  28.7  28.7  28.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  73.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   4.0   4.0  -3.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%