Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042025 250701 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    147.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  24.7  24.8  21.5  21.2  11.3  11.2  15.9  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  24.0  20.0  16.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 122.9 122.9 112.4  99.4  85.0  85.0  75.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  55.0  40.0  20.0  23.0 -20.0  11.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.7%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       15.7%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        6.4%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        5.7%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        5.0%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       19.7%       10.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        7.6%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%        3.4%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        4.8%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        6.9%        4.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 WP042025 250701 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    147.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  24.7  24.8  21.5  21.2  11.3  11.2  15.9  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%