Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042025 250702 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    147.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  19.4  16.0  16.7  14.9   6.7   8.3  15.8  N  N  F  F  F VF VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  22.0  20.0  17.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 122.9 114.4 112.4  97.7  86.5  76.7  78.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  58.0  46.0  42.0   8.0  -2.0  -4.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%       11.1%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        4.4%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.7%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       12.8%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        4.6%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.9%        4.6%        8.3%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        3.8%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        5.7%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 WP042025 250702 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    147.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  19.4  16.0  16.7  14.9   6.7   8.3  15.8  N  N  U  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%