Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042025 250702 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  22.5  21.9  22.7  13.4   9.6   8.6   9.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  22.0  20.0  17.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 122.9 112.4 112.4 101.2  88.0  89.6  79.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  18.0  -2.0  24.0 -22.0  -7.0  -2.0  34.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.2%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        1.0%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        3.9%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 WP042025 250702 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  22.5  21.9  22.7  13.4   9.6   8.6   9.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%