Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042025 250702 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    146.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  16.8  15.4  14.6  11.1  13.9  14.1  14.8  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  20.0  17.0  13.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 107.4 107.4  92.7  92.7  83.0  84.6  74.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0   8.0  17.0   9.0 -12.0  12.0  57.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  61.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        6.8%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       10.5%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        3.7%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.7%        2.9%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        2.1%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 WP042025 250702 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    146.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.