Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042025 250702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    145.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  13.2  14.9  13.7  15.7  18.1  15.6  16.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  13.0   7.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.4 107.4  96.2  96.2  83.0  84.6  74.4  64.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   8.0   0.0 -75.0  22.0   6.0  53.0  36.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  59.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.6%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.1%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        9.4%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.5%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        1.4%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.6%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.26

 WP042025 250702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    145.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.