Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042025 250703 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.0  15.1  16.1  20.3  13.8  13.5  15.9  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  14.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4  93.0  93.0  79.6  79.6  82.7  70.8  60.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  -5.0 -48.0 -15.0   0.0  64.0  -5.0  38.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  61.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.1%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        6.4%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        9.0%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.6%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.8%        2.9%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        1.9%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.98

 WP042025 250703 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.