Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250703 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.60 145.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.80 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 15.5 15.9 15.5 16.2 12.2 10.2 15.1 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 83.0 83.0 69.6 69.6 71.1 72.7 60.8 60.8 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 -67.0 -24.0 25.0 21.0 -14.0 11.0 -31.0 U VU VU U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 61.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 60.0 57.0 55.0 N N U U U N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 6.0 1.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.4% 4.2% 6.8% 25kt / 24h 3.1% 6.4% 4.7% 30kt / 24h 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 35kt / 24h 3.1% 2.6% 2.8% 40kt / 24h 0.7% 2.6% 1.6% 45kt / 36h 3.0% 9.2% 6.1% 55kt / 36h 3.0% 3.8% 3.4% 55kt / 48h 11.7% 0.9% 6.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.70 WP042025 250703 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.60 145.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.