Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250703 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 145.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 76.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.2 16.5 15.2 13.1 14.6 12.8 14.9 18.1 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 73.0 59.6 59.6 49.4 50.8 50.8 40.5 34.8 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -41.0 -24.0 19.0 -13.0 31.0 -13.0 -35.0 -40.0 VU VU U U N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 58.0 60.0 56.0 52.0 U U U U U N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 6.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.8% 4.1% 7.9% 25kt / 24h 3.1% 4.8% 4.0% 30kt / 24h 3.1% 2.5% 2.8% 35kt / 24h 2.6% 2.0% 2.3% 40kt / 24h 2.6% 2.0% 2.3% 45kt / 36h 1.6% 5.5% 3.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.28 WP042025 250703 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 145.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.