Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250703 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.00 145.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 17.7 17.1 16.8 14.2 17.6 15.8 36.0 F F F F F F F U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.6 59.6 49.4 49.4 50.8 40.5 34.8 25.0 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -22.0 5.0 -16.0 32.0 22.0 -17.0 -46.0 -58.0 VU U U N U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 60.0 59.0 60.0 63.0 66.0 59.0 59.0 U N U N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 7.0 2.0 6.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.1% 2.0% 3.5% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 2.2% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 3.0% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.82 WP042025 250703 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.00 145.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.